It would be churlish not to join in the punditry for the Louis Vuitton Final...
But let me tell you right now - I think it’s too close to call. That’s not to say that either Luna Rossa or Emirates Team New Zealand won’t go down 5-1 or 5-2, because a tiny edge in this game can be converted into a sweep, but at this point in time I think you’d be foolish to try and predict which team. As ETNZ tactician, Terry Hutchinson said repeatedly at Thursday morning’s opening press conference - it will come down to who does the most things right and the least things wrong on any given day…
Now, I’ve got to admit that to prepare for this blog, I haven’t watched every start that Barker and Spithill have done since they were kids – which is what ETNZ's head man, Grant Dalton told Murray Deaker’s New Zealand radio audience that Ben Ainslie had been up to for a report on Jimmy Spithill. I think you can safely assume that Philippe Presti and Charlie McKee at Luna Rossa have put together something very similar on Dean Barker. This is Presti, ‘As the training helmsman I have to put myself in Dean Barker’s skin. We did the same for Dickson and it worked really well.’
Unfortunately, you’re going to have to make do with the conclusions that I can draw from the last two round robin races.
In Round Robin 1, ETNZ had the tricky port entry in light air, and took a penalty in a long dial-up. But a penalty right or wrong is not the point here, so much as ETNZ appear a little less consistent in the pre-start than Luna Rossa. It’s very rare that you see the Italians in big trouble in the pre-start box – whereas you do see ETNZ convert a small disadvantage into a big one, by trying too hard to get the upper hand back.
This is something that the Kiwis need to watch, and a whole bunch of people from ETNZ have been telling us so – starting with helmsman, Dean Barker, ‘I know I still have to improve my pre-starts. I have had some really good ones but also others were more average, and we are going to work on being more consistent.’ Dalton said something similar to Murray Deaker, and Terry Hutchinson reinforced it again in Thursday morning’s ACM press conference when he said that they had been out practicing pre-starts - while Luna Rossa seemed to be focused on tacking and gybing…
But I digress… the next pressure point is the weather call – which side of the line and the first beat do you want? Both teams appeared to have an excellent record in the semis (you can never be sure as we don’t hear the call). Roger ‘Clouds’ Badham is leading the way at Emirates TNZ, and Hamish Wilcox is his opposite number at Luna Rossa - but nobody’s perfect, as this first round robin race demonstrated, so to continue that tale…
ETNZ did well to escape out of that long dial-up, albeit with one penalty (remember what happened to Oracle in the semi-final with a light air, port entry against Luna Rossa). And Luna Rossa appeared happy to let ETNZ take the left-hand side of the start line, but the Kiwis did a better job of the final approach to get a good start tight to leeward. From there, they forced Luna Rossa to tack away. The early gains were to the left, and ETNZ managed to win the first cross. Luna Rossa picked a side and got it, but executed the actual start poorly and lost the advantage when it turned out to be the wrong choice. And these were all things they did brilliantly in the semi-final against Oracle.
But what happened next? ETNZ had the pick of the sides for the rest of the beat, took the right hand side and a massive split opened. Then Terry Hutchinson had to watch Luna Rossa come back and take the lead at the first mark, after some great close quarters work on the final approach by Jimmy Spithill. It was a lead that Luna Rossa only relinquished on the final run, after another big-ish split, with Luna Rossa still winning after ETNZ completed the penalty. And this is famously, keep-it-tight-Terry, remember. Beware of pundits making generalisations...
All right, maybe the penalty meant he had to look for the big gain. But how did ETNZ beat Oracle to top the leader-board for the round robins? It was a massive split on the first beat of the last race. Both Terry Hutchinson and his Luna Rossa opposite number, Torben Grael, are prepared to sail the race as they see it. And I’m still backing my previous theory that a willingness to take a split indicates that they think they’re sailing an even or better team, rather than one they’ve got an edge over. I point to how tight Luna Rossa kept it with Oracle after they went 3-1 up and rest my case…
In Round Robin 2, the entry sides were swopped, but there was a bit more breeze, so things were easier for Luna Rossa and we ended up with a similar final approach to the line. Luna Rossa again had the right hand side, although on this occasion it was clearer that ETNZ wanted the left. The Kiwis got tight to leeward, and the Italians had to tack away immediately giving ETNZ a lead of half a length or so.
From there it appeared that things swung back to the Italians on the right, and when Luna Rossa tacked to starboard to force the first cross, the boats were almost bow to bow. But ETNZ had a tiny edge and managed to tack leebow, forcing the Italians away. That’s how it proceeded up that beat over more than thirty tacks, with ETNZ slowly extending to a 17 second lead by the first mark, and then pulling out to a 36s win by the finish. It all happened in that tacking duel on the first beat – perhaps that’s why Terry Hutchinson thinks the Italians are out there practicing their maneuvers. It’s the sum of all the tiny things executed well, that will make the difference on any given day.
What else can I tell you? Grant Dalton said in his NZ radio interview, and Hutchinson confirmed it on Thursday morning, that they will be using NZL 92, and the boat hasn’t been changed. Andy Horton of Luna Rossa confirmed that they would be using ITA 94, but not that there hadn’t been any changes – Dalton believes the Italians have been tweaking wing angles at least.
Speed differences are the hardest thing to call from the outside, as you can’t be sure about differences in the breeze on the boats. But if there’s a consensus it’s that NZL 92 is the better boat in under… say 12 knots, and ITA 94 quicker over that break point. Luna Rossa looked moded for upwind in the semi-finals, but if Dalts is right about the wing angles, that could now have changed. Personally, I think the differences will be tiny across the range, and it will come down to how well the teams convert, when and if they have an edge. Just like basketball, you have to score on every possession…
Dalton certainly gave the impression that they believed this was going to come down to the people, not the boats – resilience to the pressure was the key. So who’s really up for this? Both teams have come back from some real bad days – ETNZ’s first round loss to Mascalzone, and Luna Rossa’s double loss to Shosholoza and Oracle in the same round – so I don’t think we’ll see anyone folding and packing any mental tents. This one will be fought to the end.
Over the past four years, ETNZ have the psychological advantage, they’ve been top challenger dog for a long time. And while that ought to give them an edge, it also gives them more to lose. While Luna Rossa are the boat on a charge, with a big rush of form and confidence just when it matters. Then again, so far, the Kiwis have always found the little extra when they needed it to get their noses in front… you see the problem.
In the wrap-up interview at the end of the semi’s, Hutchinson joked, ‘I haven't slept in about six weeks.’ The Emirates TNZ website says that they’ve had three days off since then. But remember that the Italians have had three more days to prepare, and Luna Rossa up-the-rig-man, Andy Horton, told the Thursday press conference that they’ve taken four or five days off. This is certainly a lesson learned – if I remember rightly, after winning an exhausting Louis Vuitton final against Paul Cayard and co. in 2000, Prada (as they were then) worked straight through to the America’s Cup itself, and got hammered 5-0.
And finally... The stats say that these teams are 2-2 in the last four races, with the yellow or starboard entry boat always winning. At today’s press conference, Andy Horton won the coin toss for Luna Rossa and chose the yellow end.
And really finally... you might have heard that ETNZ sailed Alinghi on Wednesday. Terry Hutchinson told the press conference that NZL 92 had a maintenance day and they wanted to race - so they were using NZL 84. And as we have no idea which boat or kit Alinghi were using, I wouldn’t read too much into Alinghi's reported speed advantage, although it is a depressingly familiar tune. Dalton told NZ radio that they reckon they got the better of the starts, and perhaps that's just the fillip the Kiwis needed…
Tomorrow, the talk stops when the flag drops, and we'll find out.
Louis Vuitton and America's Cup Live Race Commentary at:
www.tackbytack.com
www.markchisnell.com
Mark Chisnell ©
But let me tell you right now - I think it’s too close to call. That’s not to say that either Luna Rossa or Emirates Team New Zealand won’t go down 5-1 or 5-2, because a tiny edge in this game can be converted into a sweep, but at this point in time I think you’d be foolish to try and predict which team. As ETNZ tactician, Terry Hutchinson said repeatedly at Thursday morning’s opening press conference - it will come down to who does the most things right and the least things wrong on any given day…
Now, I’ve got to admit that to prepare for this blog, I haven’t watched every start that Barker and Spithill have done since they were kids – which is what ETNZ's head man, Grant Dalton told Murray Deaker’s New Zealand radio audience that Ben Ainslie had been up to for a report on Jimmy Spithill. I think you can safely assume that Philippe Presti and Charlie McKee at Luna Rossa have put together something very similar on Dean Barker. This is Presti, ‘As the training helmsman I have to put myself in Dean Barker’s skin. We did the same for Dickson and it worked really well.’
Unfortunately, you’re going to have to make do with the conclusions that I can draw from the last two round robin races.
In Round Robin 1, ETNZ had the tricky port entry in light air, and took a penalty in a long dial-up. But a penalty right or wrong is not the point here, so much as ETNZ appear a little less consistent in the pre-start than Luna Rossa. It’s very rare that you see the Italians in big trouble in the pre-start box – whereas you do see ETNZ convert a small disadvantage into a big one, by trying too hard to get the upper hand back.
This is something that the Kiwis need to watch, and a whole bunch of people from ETNZ have been telling us so – starting with helmsman, Dean Barker, ‘I know I still have to improve my pre-starts. I have had some really good ones but also others were more average, and we are going to work on being more consistent.’ Dalton said something similar to Murray Deaker, and Terry Hutchinson reinforced it again in Thursday morning’s ACM press conference when he said that they had been out practicing pre-starts - while Luna Rossa seemed to be focused on tacking and gybing…
But I digress… the next pressure point is the weather call – which side of the line and the first beat do you want? Both teams appeared to have an excellent record in the semis (you can never be sure as we don’t hear the call). Roger ‘Clouds’ Badham is leading the way at Emirates TNZ, and Hamish Wilcox is his opposite number at Luna Rossa - but nobody’s perfect, as this first round robin race demonstrated, so to continue that tale…
ETNZ did well to escape out of that long dial-up, albeit with one penalty (remember what happened to Oracle in the semi-final with a light air, port entry against Luna Rossa). And Luna Rossa appeared happy to let ETNZ take the left-hand side of the start line, but the Kiwis did a better job of the final approach to get a good start tight to leeward. From there, they forced Luna Rossa to tack away. The early gains were to the left, and ETNZ managed to win the first cross. Luna Rossa picked a side and got it, but executed the actual start poorly and lost the advantage when it turned out to be the wrong choice. And these were all things they did brilliantly in the semi-final against Oracle.
But what happened next? ETNZ had the pick of the sides for the rest of the beat, took the right hand side and a massive split opened. Then Terry Hutchinson had to watch Luna Rossa come back and take the lead at the first mark, after some great close quarters work on the final approach by Jimmy Spithill. It was a lead that Luna Rossa only relinquished on the final run, after another big-ish split, with Luna Rossa still winning after ETNZ completed the penalty. And this is famously, keep-it-tight-Terry, remember. Beware of pundits making generalisations...
All right, maybe the penalty meant he had to look for the big gain. But how did ETNZ beat Oracle to top the leader-board for the round robins? It was a massive split on the first beat of the last race. Both Terry Hutchinson and his Luna Rossa opposite number, Torben Grael, are prepared to sail the race as they see it. And I’m still backing my previous theory that a willingness to take a split indicates that they think they’re sailing an even or better team, rather than one they’ve got an edge over. I point to how tight Luna Rossa kept it with Oracle after they went 3-1 up and rest my case…
In Round Robin 2, the entry sides were swopped, but there was a bit more breeze, so things were easier for Luna Rossa and we ended up with a similar final approach to the line. Luna Rossa again had the right hand side, although on this occasion it was clearer that ETNZ wanted the left. The Kiwis got tight to leeward, and the Italians had to tack away immediately giving ETNZ a lead of half a length or so.
From there it appeared that things swung back to the Italians on the right, and when Luna Rossa tacked to starboard to force the first cross, the boats were almost bow to bow. But ETNZ had a tiny edge and managed to tack leebow, forcing the Italians away. That’s how it proceeded up that beat over more than thirty tacks, with ETNZ slowly extending to a 17 second lead by the first mark, and then pulling out to a 36s win by the finish. It all happened in that tacking duel on the first beat – perhaps that’s why Terry Hutchinson thinks the Italians are out there practicing their maneuvers. It’s the sum of all the tiny things executed well, that will make the difference on any given day.
What else can I tell you? Grant Dalton said in his NZ radio interview, and Hutchinson confirmed it on Thursday morning, that they will be using NZL 92, and the boat hasn’t been changed. Andy Horton of Luna Rossa confirmed that they would be using ITA 94, but not that there hadn’t been any changes – Dalton believes the Italians have been tweaking wing angles at least.
Speed differences are the hardest thing to call from the outside, as you can’t be sure about differences in the breeze on the boats. But if there’s a consensus it’s that NZL 92 is the better boat in under… say 12 knots, and ITA 94 quicker over that break point. Luna Rossa looked moded for upwind in the semi-finals, but if Dalts is right about the wing angles, that could now have changed. Personally, I think the differences will be tiny across the range, and it will come down to how well the teams convert, when and if they have an edge. Just like basketball, you have to score on every possession…
Dalton certainly gave the impression that they believed this was going to come down to the people, not the boats – resilience to the pressure was the key. So who’s really up for this? Both teams have come back from some real bad days – ETNZ’s first round loss to Mascalzone, and Luna Rossa’s double loss to Shosholoza and Oracle in the same round – so I don’t think we’ll see anyone folding and packing any mental tents. This one will be fought to the end.
Over the past four years, ETNZ have the psychological advantage, they’ve been top challenger dog for a long time. And while that ought to give them an edge, it also gives them more to lose. While Luna Rossa are the boat on a charge, with a big rush of form and confidence just when it matters. Then again, so far, the Kiwis have always found the little extra when they needed it to get their noses in front… you see the problem.
In the wrap-up interview at the end of the semi’s, Hutchinson joked, ‘I haven't slept in about six weeks.’ The Emirates TNZ website says that they’ve had three days off since then. But remember that the Italians have had three more days to prepare, and Luna Rossa up-the-rig-man, Andy Horton, told the Thursday press conference that they’ve taken four or five days off. This is certainly a lesson learned – if I remember rightly, after winning an exhausting Louis Vuitton final against Paul Cayard and co. in 2000, Prada (as they were then) worked straight through to the America’s Cup itself, and got hammered 5-0.
And finally... The stats say that these teams are 2-2 in the last four races, with the yellow or starboard entry boat always winning. At today’s press conference, Andy Horton won the coin toss for Luna Rossa and chose the yellow end.
And really finally... you might have heard that ETNZ sailed Alinghi on Wednesday. Terry Hutchinson told the press conference that NZL 92 had a maintenance day and they wanted to race - so they were using NZL 84. And as we have no idea which boat or kit Alinghi were using, I wouldn’t read too much into Alinghi's reported speed advantage, although it is a depressingly familiar tune. Dalton told NZ radio that they reckon they got the better of the starts, and perhaps that's just the fillip the Kiwis needed…
Tomorrow, the talk stops when the flag drops, and we'll find out.
Louis Vuitton and America's Cup Live Race Commentary at:
www.tackbytack.com
www.markchisnell.com
Mark Chisnell ©